Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.011911 0.013467 0.015151 0.017109 0.019323 0.021750 0.024614
2025-11-02 0.009366 0.011489 0.013980 0.017120 0.020976 0.025562 0.031436
2025-11-09 0.007797 0.010113 0.012986 0.016813 0.021786 0.028040 0.036520
2025-11-16 0.006891 0.009356 0.012554 0.017014 0.023085 0.031080 0.042440
2025-11-23 0.006078 0.008584 0.011967 0.016874 0.023827 0.033356 0.047459
2025-11-30 0.005600 0.008195 0.011823 0.017274 0.025284 0.036663 0.054132
2025-12-07 0.004936 0.007459 0.011100 0.016750 0.025329 0.037919 0.057904
2025-12-14 0.004448 0.006924 0.010604 0.016488 0.025697 0.039628 0.062436
2025-12-21 0.003979 0.006368 0.010017 0.016015 0.025675 0.040707 0.066038
2025-12-28 0.003804 0.006251 0.010088 0.016564 0.027281 0.044415 0.074099
2026-01-04 0.003598 0.006062 0.010022 0.016877 0.028515 0.047604 0.081556
2026-01-11 0.003429 0.005916 0.010010 0.017267 0.029896 0.051122 0.089837
2026-01-18 0.003176 0.005610 0.009713 0.017162 0.030445 0.053322 0.096105
2026-01-25 0.002965 0.005360 0.009490 0.017165 0.031181 0.055902 0.103281
2026-02-01 0.002727 0.005039 0.009114 0.016857 0.031324 0.057428 0.108642
2026-02-08 0.002589 0.004887 0.009025 0.017059 0.032408 0.060724 0.117562
2026-02-15 0.002414 0.004652 0.008765 0.016918 0.032830 0.062815 0.124341
2026-02-22 0.002327 0.004576 0.008791 0.017320 0.034317 0.067024 0.135598
2026-03-01 0.002132 0.004271 0.008360 0.016794 0.033939 0.067592 0.139611
2026-03-08 0.001985 0.004051 0.008075 0.016531 0.034058 0.069135 0.145718
2026-03-15 0.001827 0.003797 0.007701 0.016057 0.033706 0.069694 0.149804
2026-03-22 0.001790 0.003788 0.007820 0.016608 0.035522 0.074825 0.164039
2026-03-29 0.001731 0.003727 0.007826 0.016921 0.036857 0.079049 0.176652